REPORT
State Budget Execution Review Note for the first 09 months of 2024
Amidst the complex and unpredictable fluctuations in the global political and economic situation, compounded by severe natural disasters, storms, and floods, Viet Nam's economy in the first nine months of 2024 still achieved impressive growth. This success not only reflects the resilience and determination of the entire political system but also demonstrates the close leadership of the Government, the decisive management by the Prime Minister, and the extraordinary efforts of all levels, sectors, the business community, and the entire population of the country.
Statistical indicators show that Viet Nam's macroeconomy remains stable, inflation is controlled in line with actual conditions. Overall, the GDP for the first nine months of 2024 is estimated to increase by 6.82% compared to the same period last year (GDP in Quarter 1 increased by 5.66%, Quarter 2 by 6.93%, and Quarter 3 is estimated to grow by 7.40% compared to Q3/2023), which is the highest level since 2020 (except for 2022, when growth reached 8.83%). The total import and export turnover of goods is preliminarily estimated at $57.847 billion, up 1.63% compared to the same period last year; CPI increased by 3.88% compared to the same period last year; core inflation increased by 2.69%; financial and monetary markets remained stable.
The balance of state revenue and state budget expenditure in the first nine months of 2024 was ensured.
1. State Revenue
The aggregate state revenue outturn is estimated to be 1,448.2 trillion VND, which is 85.1% of the budget plan, an increase of 17.9% compared to the same period in 2023. Specifically:
(1) Domestic revenue outturn is estimated at 1,203 trillion VND, equivalent to 83.3% of the forecast, increasing by 18.9% compared to the same period. In which, revenue collection from the three main economic sectors (accounting for 50.9% of the domestic revenue plan) is estimated to reach 80.6% of the budget plan, increasing of 10.9% compared to the same period.
(2) Oil revenue outturn is estimated to be 44.4 trillion VND, which is 96.6% of the budget plan, decreasing by 2.9% compared to the same period. The average selling oil price in the first nine months was approximately 87.6 USD/barrel, which is 17.6 USD per barrel higher than that in the forecast; the paid crude oil volume reached approximately 6.14 million tons, which is 74% of the plan.
(3) Net trade revenue outturn is estimated to be 200.2 trillion VND, which is 98.1% of the budget plan, increasing by 17.6% compared to the same period, based on total tax revenue from import and export activities being estimated to reach 305.2 trillion VND, equivalent to 81.4% of the budget plan, increasing by 13.1% compared to the same period; value-added tax refunds were approximately 105 trillion VND, which is 61.4% of the budget plan.
In September, Tax and Customs authorities continued to implement tax, fee, and land rental reduction and extension policies to support businesses and individuals. The total amount of reduction and extension is estimated at approximately 116.4 trillion VND by the end of September (including approximately 68.7 trillion VND in reductions1 and 47.7 trillion VND in extensions2). Additionally, measures to enhance revenue management, prevent revenue loss, exploit revenue from remaining sources, and aggressively handle and recover tax arrears were implemented. There was also a focus on digitization, modernizing tax collection operations, and expanding the use of electronic invoices.
2. State Budget Expenditure
The aggregate state budget expenditure outturn is estimated to be 1,256.3 trillion VND, which is 59.3% of the budget plan, an increase of 1.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Of this:
(1) Development capital expenditure outturn is estimated to be 320.6 trillion VND, which is 47.3% of the budget plan enacted by the National Assembly, decreasing by 11.8% (42.7 trillion VND) year over year.
(2) Interest payment outturn is estimated to be nearly 77.3 trillion VND, equivalent to 69.2% of the budget plan.
(3) Recurrent expenditure is estimated to be 856.5 trillion VND, which is 68% of the budget plan.
Budget expenditure tasks in the first nine months were carried out according to the budget plan, focusing on meeting the needs for socio-economic development, national defense and security, state management, and timely payments of salaries and related expenses to beneficiaries of the State Budget, contributing to effective implementation of social welfare policies and disaster relief efforts.
The Central Government has allocated 11.4 trillion VND from the 2024 contingency fund to supplement funding for defense and security tasks and support localities in carrying out urgent tasks, such as disease prevention and post-disaster recovery (including 350 billion VND allocated to support eight localities affected by Storm No. 3). Additionally, nearly 16,780 tons of rice from the national reserve have been distributed to support localities in overcoming the consequences of natural disasters, and to assist the population during the Lunar New Year and in the early harvest season.
3. State Budget Balance
The balance of the Central and local budgets is ensured. As of September 24, 2024, 262 trillion VND worth of government bonds have been issued, with an average maturity of 11.15 years and an average interest rate of 2.5% per year.
1 This includes: a reduction of the VAT rate from 10% to 8% as per Decrees No. 44/2023/ND-CP, No. 94/2023/ND-CP, and No. 72/2024/ND-CP; a reduction of environmental protection tax as per Resolutions No. 30/2022/UBTVQH15 and No. 42/2023/UBTVQH15; a reduction of land rental fees as per Decision No. 25/2023/QD-TTg; a reduction of fees and charges as per Circular No. 44/2023/TT-BTC; and a reduction of registration fees as per Decree No. 109/2024/ND-CP.
2 This includes: an extension of tax and land rental payments as per Decree No. 64/2024/ND-CP dated June 17, 2024, and an extension of special consumption tax payments as per Decree No. 65/2024/ND-CP dated June 17, 2024.
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