ANALYSIS AND FORCAST OF THE ASEAN+3 MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH AGENCIES (AMRO) ON THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Regarding the world and regional economic outlook, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Organization (AMRO) has made a number of assessments, comments and forecasts for 2024 for member economies.
According to AMRO, growth in the United States and the Euro area remained stable. In these countries, consumption of industrial products such as cars has increased, partly compensating for demand for the service industry, which is showing signs of slowing down, and inflation continues to be maintained at a low level. moderate, but these countries still face risks related to the increase in world commodity prices.
(Source: AMRO)
For China, a large economy in the region, economic growth is facing difficulties due to the declining real estate market. Although the Chinese government has introduced policy adjustments to cope with financial market instability, a decline in China's real estate market could affect growth. China's economy and thus affect the overall growth of the region. AMRO said that, even in a more adverse scenario, the negative impact on the overall Chinese economy is expected to be moderate and the spillover to the rest of the region will be different. and in general the level of impact is not too large. AMRO research suggests that the impact of a 20% reduction in Chinese real estate investment on the GDP of some member countries, specifically, could be about 0.2-0.6 percentage points (for example For example, Indonesia and Japan decreased by 0.2%, Vietnam and South Korea decreased by 0.5%, Hong Kong decreased by 0.6%. However, improvements in manufacturing activity and consumer spending will support China's growth momentum.
AMRO commented that goods exports in the ASEAN+3 region are gradually recovering. Although export activities in general and exports related to semiconductor chips in particular are gradually recovering, the manufacturing sector has not recovered stably. Inflation across the region increased at the end of the third quarter mainly due to rising energy and food prices. Domestic demand remains the main growth driver of the region.
AMRO forecasts that the regional economy will gradually recover and grow stronger in 2024, specifically the region's overall growth will increase from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, reaching 4 .5% (Vietnam's economic growth rate is forecast to reach 6.0% in 2024 - one of the member countries with the highest growth, after Cambodia's economic growth rate of 6.2 % and the economic growth rate of the Philippines is at 6.5%).
Some risks that may affect growth forecasts include geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, recession in the United States and the European region, slow recovery of China's economy, negative impacts of The impact of US tightening monetary policy on the global financial system, rising commodity prices, and long-term risks such as energy transition, natural disasters, and attacks network, pandemic.
Long-term challenges include (i) demographic issues, the rapid pace of digital aging in the region that has a major impact on labor resources and (ii) the reshaping of global trade, the rapid pace of digital aging in the region. The globalization of goods trade appears to have slowed since the global financial crisis, but the globalization of services trade continues apace, driven by a growing trend in services. Services can be provided digitally.
Some solutions that can be considered include improving the effectiveness of macroeconomic monitoring, improving the effectiveness of policy advice, and evaluating the financial safety net.
Loading...
